When I was a kid, a long long time ago, we had a Sunday night tradition. Mom made a plate of open face sandwiches, cut in quarters, and piled them on a plate. We sat in front of the TV and watched the Disney hour. Made-for-tv specials, nature programs, or Disney movies edited to fit into the hour (or two, join us again next week!) It was a treat for us boys, and a break (kind of) for Mom from cooking dinner.
Incentives Drive Behaviour
She soon figured out to bury the most desirable sandwiches at the bottom, otherwise that’s all we’d eat and she and Dad would be left out. Then she made a rule that you could only take from the top, otherwise we’d take the plate apart like a tower of Jenga blocks. Of course it became a strategic game between us, who could avoid the the sandwich they didn’t like and get to the one’s they did. Sometimes there was cooperation, sometime competition. And so on, because we were, you know, teenage boys.
It didn’t help that some of the Disney shows were, in retrospect, not especially modelling healthy relationships. The Parent Trap (1961), and it’s sequel (1986), and remake (1998), followed the adventures of a pair of twins separated by divorce who met by coincidence at summer camp, then traded places so they could break up their father’s impending remarriage and reunite their original parents. This was pitched as a comedy, but it might also be framed as a Shakespearean drama, or a psychological thriller…
Which is all to say, incentives (sandwiches, family) drive behaviour. It’s especially true for adults who have incentive structures built around meeting targets.
When Metrics Go Bad
Which is a problem, sometimes. Or as Goodhart said:
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure
I believe metrics, measures, KPIs and numbers in general are useful, but they have to be set thoughtfully, and they have to be properly managed, led, calibrated and adjusted as you go.
https://practicalmanagers.com/2026/05/23/the-kpi-is-not-the-work/
There’s lots of advice on how to set good metrics, including:
- balanced scorecards
- understanding what shifts the number and what’s just noise
- clarity of outcome
…and many warnings about consequences of setting targets poorly:
- sandbagging numbers to make the target
- frustration and resentment over being measured on something you have no control over
- fear over job security or lost income
https://practicalmanagers.com/2026/05/30/red-beads/
The worst issue, in my opinion, is blissfully mapping and measuring progress while not actually making any. Or worse, going backwards. But how do you recognize when your metrics aren’t serving you, so you know when to dig deeper?
The Cobra Effect
In colonial India, a bounty was placed on dead cobras to reduce the wild snake population. People started breeding cobras to collect the reward. When the authorities figured out what was going on and cancelled the program, most of the captive snakes were released into the wild. The population of dangerous snakes increased.
Definitely not the desired outcome. Until the colonial authorities figured out what was actually going on, I imagine there were many up-and-to-the-right line charts and much congratulatory back-slapping.
Define the Outcome, Measure the Process
I want to be clear here: people don’t usually lie, steal and cheat because they want to. They do it when they feel they have no choice. The colonial government wanted to reduce the dangerous snake population. Poverty, combined with an arguably excellent entrepreneurial spirit & problem solving skills, was the greater incentive in this case.
The authorities didn’t define how snake heads were to be collected, just that they would be paid for. I’m sure the authorities made their intentions clear in their “roll-out”, but they didn’t create a way to manage and measure that intention. They simply measured the outcome (dead snakes). The entrepreneurs (and that’s what I’m going to call them) wanted to maximize their income. Government 0, Entrepreneurs 1.
If you want the “right” outcome you have to be clear about what that outcome is and how it’s created and measure for both. You have to manage the ongoing work, not just the number of dead cobras being turned in, er, outcome.
Watch For This
Watch for these indicators, and if you recognize them, be ready to roll up your sleeves and do the real work:
- Measured aren’t regularly reviewed, assumptions tested, revised, and updated
- You’re hitting the numbers suspiciously consistently and suspiciously precisely, or
- The metric isn’t progressing despite trying different things
- You’re not not uncovering problems, defects and issues
The last one, again in my humble opinion, is the most important. If you’re not solving problems, making improvements, and removing obstacles, then how are you getting better exactly?
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